CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-12-13T00:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-12-13T00:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28127/-1
CME Note: Partial halo seen directed towards the NW in all coronagraphs. Source is a C2.8 flare from AR 3514 which peaked at 2023-12-12T22:55Z, best seen in SDO AIA 131, and an associated dimming region starting at 2023-12-12T22:30Z best observed in SDO AIA 193/211. The dimming regions spans approximately W12->W26 and N11->S10, with the most dimming occurring centered around N06W19. A double ribbon flare/surface brightening is observed in this same region in SDO AIA 304, along with a small post-eruptive arcade that begins at the same time as the eruption. Clear arrival signature: A clear shock signature with a sharp increase in B total to initially 15nT and eventually to over 23nT, with rapid fluctuations of all magnetic field components. This is accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed at first from under 300 to 400 km/s, further increasing to just under 550 km/s and a sharp increase in ion density and temperature. There is also a matching arrival at STEREO A.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-15T10:57Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-15T22:33Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 60.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Event id="369" expected arrival time: 2023-12-15T22:33:00 time_uncertainty: 12 min_estimated_peak_K: 3 max_estimated_peak_K: 5 probability_of_arrival: 60 --- From SIDC Ursigram: :Issued: 2023 Dec 14 1232 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 31214 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 14 Dec 2023, 1231UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 14 Dec 2023 10CM FLUX: 136 / AP: 015 PREDICTIONS FOR 15 Dec 2023 10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 031 PREDICTIONS FOR 16 Dec 2023 10CM FLUX: 140 / AP: 027 Solar Active Regions and flaring: The solar flaring activity reached moderate levels, with one M-class flare and several C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M5.8 flare, peaking at 07:44 on Dec 14, associated with the NOAA AR 3514 (beta class). Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3513 (beta class) and NOAA AR 3519 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a chance for isolated M-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: A faint partial halo CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 23:36 UTC on December 12, directed towards the North-West from Earth perspective. The coronal mass ejection is likely associated to C2.9 flare from NOAA AR 3514 and a small coronal dimming. Due to the source location it may have an Earth directed component and is expected to arrive from late on Dec 15. Solar coronal dimming was observed on December 14, starting at around 07:33 UTC, associated to M5.8 flare. We are awaiting corresponding coronagraph images to assess any possible Earth directed ejecta. Solar wind: At the beginning of the period, the solar wind parameters were reflecting near slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed was approximately 330 km/s; the total interplanetary magnetic field was around 7 nT. A small shock-like structure was observed in the solar wind at 21:06 UTC on Dec 13. At this time the speed increased from 330 to 380 km/s and the magnetic field reached the values up to 15 nT. The southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, ranged between -14 nT and 3 nT. This minor solar wind enhancement indicates the passage of a solar wind structure with an unclear source on the solar disc. The interplanetary magnetic field was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be elevated due to the ICME passage with a chance of a week enhancement on Dec 15-16 due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a small positive polarity coronal hole. From late on Dec 15, the shock associated with the partial halo CME of Dec 13 is also expected to arrive. Geomagnetism: The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were mostly quiet to unsettled (NOAA-Kp=1-3) with a single active period registered globally (NOAA-Kp = 4) during the interval 00-06 UTC on Dec 14. Locally only quiet to unsettled (K-Bel=1-3) conditions were observed over Belgium. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with a chance for isolated minor storm period on Dec 15-16 with expected high speed stream arrival from a small positive polarity coronal hole and possible CME arrival. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton was at the nominal levels in the past 24 hours. The proton flux is expected to remain below 10 pfu threshold over the next day. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 122, BASED ON 10 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 13 Dec 2023 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 122 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 135 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 019 AK WINGST : 008 ESTIMATED AP : 035 ESTIMATED ISN : 118, BASED ON 08 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 14 0711 0744 0800 N04W41 M5.8 SF 83/3514 VI/1 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 24.57 hour(s)
Difference: -11.60 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Michelangelo Romano (M2M Office) on 2023-12-14T10:23Z
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